No Autumn Bounce for UK Property Prices – What’s Behind the Slowdown?

Despite hopes for a seasonal surge, the UK property market has failed to deliver its traditional autumn bounce this year. Although the market shows some resilience, there are signs that price growth is being curtailed. Is the cause shifting buyer sentiment, an oversupply of properties, policy changes or something else entirely? Join us as we look at the numbers to uncover what’s really holding the market back…

Modest price growth, record supply

According to recent data, the average asking price for property in the UK rose by just 0.3 per cent (£1,165) to £371,422 in October. This is significantly below the ten-year average October increase of +1.1 per cent, reflecting a market where sellers have less pricing power than usual. The reason? A decade-high number of residential properties for sale is giving buyers more choice and forcing sellers to moderate their expectations.

Activity dips compared to last year

Market activity in September softened compared to the same period in 2024, which had been buoyed by the first bank rate cut in four years and a rush to beat the April 2025 stamp duty increase. Both new buyer enquiries and new seller listings were down 5 per cent year-on-year for September. However, looking at the year to date, new buyer demand is up 2 per cent, new sellers are up 5 per cent and agreed sales are also up 5 per cent compared to the same period last year, demonstrating underlying resilience despite short-term caution.

Regional divide widens

The annual price dip continues, with London and the south of England dragging down the national average to -0.1 per cent. All four southern regions are now seeing lower average asking prices than a year ago, with London down 1.4 per cent. In contrast, Scotland, Wales and the rest of England have all seen annual asking price rises of at least 1 per cent, highlighting a growing north-south divide. The more expensive southern regions are being hit hardest by increased stamp duty, greater competition among sellers and reduced appeal to international buyers, especially with uncertainty around the upcoming Budget.

Buyer breakdown

• First-time buyers: £226,869 (-0.1% monthly, flat annually)
• Second-steppers: £343,988 (-0.3% monthly, +0.2% annually)
• Top of the ladder: £676,200 (+1.1% monthly, +0.1% annually)

This buyer data shows that while the top end of the market saw a modest monthly rise, affordability and price sensitivity remain key themes across all sectors.

Policy and mortgage market

Mortgage rates have plateaued, according to the report authors, with some lenders pausing ahead of the Budget. While average rates are still lower than a year ago, many buyers remain in a holding pattern, waiting for greater clarity on taxation and economic policy before committing to purchases.

Colleen Babcock, property expert at Rightmove, which produced the data in its House Price Index, commented: “Despite the overall resilience of the 2025 housing market, we’ve not got enough pent-up momentum or recent positive sentiment to spur the usual autumn bounce in property prices. We’re experiencing a decade-high level of property choice for buyers, which means that sellers who are serious about selling have had to acknowledge their limited pricing power and moderate their price expectations. In addition, speculation that the Budget may increase the cost of buying or owning a property at the higher end of the market, has given some movers, particularly in the south of England, a reason to wait and see what’s announced in the Budget.”

The data suggests getting the asking price right from the outset is crucial, with Rightmove’s research showing that properties receiving an enquiry on the first day of marketing are 22 per cent more likely to secure a buyer than those that take over two weeks to attract interest. As the Budget approaches and policy changes loom, investors should keep a close eye on both regional trends and government announcements to spot emerging opportunities and risks.